China’s second lesson is that governments can slow the spread of the disease.
Flattening the spike of the epidemic means that health systems are less overwhelmed,
which saves lives. If, like flu, the virus turns out to be seasonal, some cases
could be delayed until next winter, by which time doctors will understand better how
to cope with it. By then, new vaccines and antiviral drugs may be available.
When countries have few cases, they can follow each one, tracing contacts and isolating
them. But when the disease is spreading in the community, that becomes futile. Governments
need to prepare for the moment when they will switch to social distancing, which may
include cancelling public events, closing schools, staggering work hours and so on. Given
the uncertainties, governments will have to choose how draconian they want to be.
They should be guided by science. International travel bans look decisive, but they offer
little protection because people find ways to move. They also signal that the problem is
“them” infecting “us”, rather than limiting infections among “us”. Likewise, if the
disease has spread widely, as in Italy and South Korea, “Wuhan-lite” quarantines of whole
towns offer scant protection at a high cost.
Scrub up
The third lesson is to prepare health systems for what is to come.
That entails painstaking logistical planning. Hospitals need supplies of gowns, masks,
gloves, oxygen and drugs. They should already be conserving them. They will run short
of equipment, including ventilators. They need a scheme for how to set aside wards and
floors for covid-19 patients, for how to cope if staff fall ill, and for how to choose
between patients if they are overwhelmed. By now, this work should have been done.
This virus has already exposed the strengths and weaknesses of China’s authoritarianism.
It will test all the political systems with which it comes into contact, in both rich and
developing countries. China has bought government time to prepare for a pandemic.
They should use it.