Citing facts drawn from the color-film processing industry
that indicate a downward trend in the costs of film
processing over a 24-year period, the author argues that
Olympic Foods will likewise be able to minimize costs and
thus maximize profits in the future. In support of this
conclusion the author cites the general principle that “as
organizations learn how to do things better, they become
more efficient.” This principle, coupled with the fact
that Olympic Foods has had 25 years of experience in the
food processing industry leads to the author’s rosy
prediction. This argument is unconvincing because it suffers from two critical flaws.
First, the author’s forecast of minimal costs and
maximum profits rests on the gratuitous assumption that
Olympic Foods’ “long experience” has taught it
how to do things better. There is, however, no guarantee that this
is the case. Nor does the author cite any evidence to
support this assumption. Just as likely, Olympic Foods has
learned nothing from its 25 years in the food-processing
business. Lacking this assumption, the expectation of
increased efficiency is entirely unfounded.
Second, it is highly doubtful that the facts drawn from
the color-film processing industry are applicable to the
food processing industry. Differences between the two
industries clearly outweigh the similarities, thus making
the analogy highly less than valid. For example, problems of
spoilage, contamination, and timely transportation all
affect the food industry but are virtually absent in the
film-processing industry. Problems such as these might
present insurmountable obstacles that prevent lowering food-processing costs in the future.
As it stands the author’s argument is not compelling.
To strengthen the conclusion that Olympic Foods will enjoy
minimal costs and maximum profits in the future,
the author would have to provide evidence that the company has
learned how to do things better as a result of its 25
years of experience. Supporting examples drawn from
industries more similar to the food-processing
industry would further substantiate the author’s view.