At first I would say I disagree with the statement according to which
the use of cars would decrease in the following twenty years.
Indeed, the world's population is expected to grow drastically in
the next decades. Population in Western countries is likely
to grow at the same pace it is growing today, but the most important
contribution to the global population growth will certainly
come from developing countries. And to my opinion, a growth in the
use of cars will accompany this growth in population.
People in developed countries are largely accustomed to using cars,
therefore a great change in habits would be needed
to curb the growth in cars’ use. Moreover, studies show that people live
further and further from their work place, and therefore
have to use their car more often. As for developing countries, a rapid economic
growth is expected to go along with population
growth in a good deal of countries. These countries are likely to reach the development level
of Western countries within the
next couple of decades. Unless these countries can develop
their own pattern, which I doubt, they will use more and more cars.
Nevertheless, some hope remains that the growth in the use of
cars can be slowed in the future. People and governments are
becoming more and more aware of environmental issues linked
to the use of cars, and some experiments aiming at reducing
it have been conducted in some places (e.g. the toll in the
London downtown, or the alternate circulation in Paris on high
pollution rate days). Although these measures certainly have
a positive effect on pollution and traffic. I don’t think they’re
viable in the long run. To curb environmental problems linked to
cars, the only solution is to develop new clean technologies.