The agrument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned. By making a comparison of
the region of Forestville, the town with the higher speed limit and therefore automobile accidents,
with the region of Elmsford, an area of a lower speed limit and subsequently fewer accidents,
the argument for reducing Forestville's speed limits in order to decrease accidents seems logical.
A recent survey of dental patients showed that people who use Smile-Bright toothpaste are most likel
y to have capped teeth -- artificial but natural-looking protective coverings placed by dentists on
individual teeth. Those people who had begun using Smile-Bright toothpaste early in life were more l
ikely to have capped teeth than were people who had begun using Smile-Bright later in life.
In addition, those who reported brushing their teeth more than twice a day with Smile-Bright
toothpaste weremore likely to have caps on their teeth than were those who reported brushing
with Smile-Bright less frequently.
The argument contains several facets that are questionable. First, the reliability and generalizabil
ity of the survey are open to quesiton. In addition, the argument assumes a correlation amounts to a
causal relationship. The argument also fails to examine alternative explanations. I will discuss
each of these facets in turn.
The notion that protective gear reduces the injuries suffered in accidents seems at first glance to
be an obvious conclusion. After all, it is the intent of these products to either prevent accidents
from occuring in the first place or to reduce the injuries suffered by the wearer should an accident
occur. However, the conclusion that investing in high quality protective gear greatly reduces the
risk of being severely injured in an accident may mask other causes of injuries and may inspire
people to over invest financially and psychologically in protective gear.
In this argument the author employs a variety of evidence about Paleans, including their geographica
l isolation and the discovery of a basket, to argue that Palean baskets could have been made by non-
Palean cultures. We may accept part of the author’s claim regarding the Paleans, but in the absence
of some critical evidence, we cannot accept the conclusion that the Paleans have no means of
transporting one of their baskets to other region.
In the first place, the author assumes that the Paleans could not have reached Lithos because no
Palean boat has been found. However, the author is treating a lack of proof that the Paleans
could have possessed some kind of boat as sufficient proof that they did not possess any
such vehicles at all. From the passage we are only informed that Palean boats “were not found”,
but the mere fact that no boat found currently could not fully illustrate that
the Paleans did not have boats. We need concrete evidence to show that the Paleans did not master
the skill of shipbuilding. Granted that the Paleans did possess no boats, we still need evidence
to prove that the basket could not have arrived in Lithos by other means. Although the Brim River
is deep and broad at present, it
might be shallower and narrower at Palean time, or at least some sections of the river were less de
ep and broad at that time. If so, the Paleans could have crossed the river without boat. Some archae
ological and geological records or documents about the condition of the Brim River at ancient time m
ight be useful for evaluating the argument.
Assuming that the river was also deep and broad in ancient time and can be crossed only by boat, the
re is a possibility that some vehicles were in the possession of a second culture with whom the Pale
an people kept in contact. The second culture might have brought the discovered basket to Lithos
during trading or other activities. Also possibly, the basket may have been brought to Lithos by
some other people latterly after the disappearance of the Paleans, or may have drifted to the
site due to geological accidents such as a flood.
The author should provide evidence to show that Paleans had no significant contact with other cultur
es who possessed boats, and that the basket could not be carried to the site through other methods
such as trading or some accidents. We still cannot rule out the possibility that the baskets were
unique to Palean culture without such information.
In sum, the conclusion is hastily reached. Before the claim that other cultures could have produced
so-called Palean baskets is accepted, the author should provide concrete evidence to show that Palea
ns were never capable of building boats. The author also needs to rule out other possible ways by
which the basket could travel to other places.